Ivey, Negreanu Among Betting Favorites To Win 2018 WSOP Main Event

Matthew Clark June 29, 2018 1979 Reads
WSOP Main Event

The World Series of Poker Main Event is America’s favorite annual goldrush. Thousands convene to compete for millions and thanks to PokerShares, that market is growing. The wagering website developed by Mike McDonald faces its most highly trafficked days of the year between now and Day 1A of the Main Event on July 2. Gamblers can buy pieces of their favorite players at the designated PokerShares markup and also bet on players to make the final table along with to win.

PokerShares released their odds this week and created a social media buzz that can only be found around the Main Event. The numbers are at a market price, thus creating an unlevel playing field for those looking to buy the biggest “name brands” in poker.

Markup game is all-in

Players who sell to the Main Event set their markup at the highest it will be for the full calendar year. The upside of winning the tournament is incomparable to any other event and PokerShares implements this practice across their own lines.

Phil Hellmuth’s name is worth quite a bit to the public eye and according to PokerShares, Hellmuth’s markup for the Main Event is 4.0. For every one percent a buyer pays for Hellmuth, they will be investing $400. Any buyer of Hellmuth’s on PokerShares to break-even, they need Hellmuth to cash for at least $40,000.

The last time Hellmuth reached that threshold was in 2008 when he finished 45th for $154,400. Hellmuth last cashed in the Main Event in 2015 for $21,786. Then again, if Hellmuth were to win his second Main Event bracelet, that same buyer could cash out for at least $80,000 for their one percent investment.

Other past Main Event champion markups include Joe McKeehen at 3.8,  Jonathan Duhamel at 3.3, Joe Hachem at 2.1, and Chris Moneymaker at 1.9.

Defending Main Event winner Scott Blumstein does not have a markup listed for his title defense.

The highest markups belong to the High Roller group. Nick Petrangelo, Connor Drinan, Ole Schemion, and Phil Ivey all score at 4.6. Schemion has never cashed in the WSOP Main Event and Petrangelo’s best cash of his three is last year, when he earned $24,867.

Drinan beat the 4.6 figure a summer ago when he took 56th place for over $120,000. A glance through the lines prompted feedback from Drinan’s Twitter.

In Ivey’s amazing career, the Main Event has always been kind to him. The 2009 November Nine run is the pinnacle of his achievements in the ‘big one’ and he owns five career cashes dating back to 2002, three of which bested the 4.6 line.

Betting on Ivey comes at a steep price but the results prove his long-term worth of beating the largest fields he plays against all year.

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Just win, baby

There’s picking a longshot and then there is finding the $8 million diamond in the rough. Anyone who digs deep enough is going to be handsomely paid.

PokerShares carries the alphabet of prospective Main Event winner with more odds available to those who request them. If you don’t see a player listed that you might want to wager on, PokerShares will create a price for that player based on what they believe the market to be.

Daniel Negreanu, Justin Bonomo, Petrangelo, Ivey, Schemion, and Drinan are the ‘favorites’ at 500-1 with a list of contenders behind them.

Adrian Mateos, Charlie Carrel, Dominik Nitsche, and Erik Seidel are all at the 550-1 price point.

A simple wager of $20 on Ivey nets $10,000, based on current odds. PokerShares bends to the will of the market. Even though Ivey’s tournament game is past its prime based on years away, he is still the most popular choice to outlast a field that is expected to crest 7,000.

The odds they are a-changin’

Per customer demand, more names are to appear on the PokerShares list of possible buys in the days leading up to the Main Event. PokerShares also offers odds for various players as the tournament moves closer to the final table.

Last summer, Blumstein was listed as the favorite heading into the final table and took home the bracelet to win those who bet on him a prize. Blumstein’s name was not on any buyer’s radar at this time in 2017 but by Day 7, he became a popular name within the PokerShares marketplace.

Sam Panzica’s ban from the Rio appears to be lifted, per Twitter, and PokerShares may have its newest available buy.

Lead image courtesy of World Poker Tour/Flickr

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